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基于Copula函数建立了东江流域上游龙川站、中游河源站和下游博罗站3个站点汛期、非汛期及全年降雨丰枯遭遇发生概率的联合分布模型,计算获得各个时段不同情形下降雨丰枯遭遇的发生概率及条件发生概率。结果表明:3个站点降雨丰枯遭遇在时间尺度上存在差异性,非汛期降雨量不足,调水不利情况最易发生;从年时间尺度看,研究时段内调水不利年份偏多,不利情况发生概率64%。认为规划设计水资源调配方案时,应有针对性地利用水库调蓄水量,合理配置,科学调控,实现流域内水资源高效可持续利用。
Based on the Copula function, a joint distribution model was established for the probability of rainfall abundance and flood in the three stations of Longchuan, Zhonghe, Heyuan and downstream Boluo stations in the upper reaches of the Dongjiang River. Rainfall abundance The probability of occurrence and the probability of occurrence. The results show that there are some differences in time scales between the rainfall and dryness in the three sites, the lack of rainfall in non-flood season, and the most unfavorable situation in water diversion. In terms of annual time scale, The probability of occurrence is 64%. When planning and designing water resources allocation plan, it is suggested to use the reservoirs to adjust the water storage capacity, rationally dispose and control the water resources effectively and sustainably.