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本文利用湖北省1986-2010年湖北省旅游总收入、湖北省第三产业产值以及湖北省旅游外汇收入相关数据建立VAR模型。通过VAR模型的脉冲响应分析和方差分解方法分析湖北省旅游总收入、旅游外汇收入以及第三产业产值的互动关系。研究结果表明长期来看,省内旅游产值每增长1个百分点,则第三产业产值平均会增加0.18个百分点。湖北省国际旅游外汇收入每增加一个百分点,第三产业产值平均将会增加0.25个百分点。国内旅游市场对第三产业产值的影响要比国际旅游市场对第三产业的影响要大。
This article makes use of the total tourism revenue of Hubei Province from 1986 to 2010, the output value of the tertiary industry in Hubei Province and the tourism foreign exchange revenue of Hubei Province to establish the VAR model. Through the VAR model impulse response analysis and variance decomposition method, this paper analyzes the interactive relationship between total tourism revenue, tourism foreign exchange income and output value of tertiary industry in Hubei Province. The results show that in the long run, the output value of the tertiary industry will increase by 0.18 percentage points on average for every 1% increase in the tourism output value in the province. For every 1% increase in Hubei’s foreign exchange receipts from international tourism, the output value of the tertiary industry will increase by an average of 0.25 percentage point on average. The impact of the domestic tourism market on the output value of the tertiary industry is greater than that of the international tourism market on the tertiary industry.