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发电投资项目具有不确定性因素多、决策难度大的特点,而节能减排、排污权交易等措施的实施会在相当程度上影响发电投资项目尤其是火电等非清洁能源项目的价值,从而进一步增加了发电投资项目评估的复杂性。在此背景下,针对排污权交易实施后的电力工业环境,提出一种新的发电项目投资评价方法,建立了相应的实物期权模型,采用最小二乘蒙特卡洛方法获取项目价值及最优投资时机,最后通过算例分析了市场因素和监管措施对发电投资的影响。
Power generation investment projects have many uncertainties and difficult decisions, and the implementation of such measures as energy conservation, emission reduction and emissions trading will, to a considerable extent, affect the value of power generation investment projects, especially non-clean energy projects such as thermal power, and further Increasing the complexity of the assessment of a power generation investment project. Against this background, this paper proposes a new investment evaluation method for power generation project after the implementation of emission trading and establishes a corresponding real option model. The least squares Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the project value and the optimal investment Timing, and finally analyzed the impact of market factors and regulatory measures on power generation investment through an example.