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研究昆虫杆状病毒流行病模拟模型,对确定基因工程改造杆状病毒的主攻方向,明确病毒病田间流行的机制与关键因素,以及制定生物防治策略,均具有重要的理论与实践意义。本研究研制了用于昆虫杆状病毒流行病模拟的数学模型和Java模拟软件,该模型包括描述种群动态的一个微分方程组,描述气温变化、作物生长及病毒动态的若干模型等。模拟软件用工具包JDK和JavaScript开发,由主计算类、图形类、结果显示类、参数输入界面类、警告信息类、主页、用户指南页、版权页、计数页等组成。在参数文件中编入有关作物、病毒、害虫等方面的参数,输入初始的各龄健康、染病虫量、叶面积、病毒密度等,运行后可输出各龄健康、染病及病死的虫量,作物损失,病毒积累等动态,以及图形等等。该模型适用于各种杆状病毒,各种有叶作物,各种食叶性的全变态昆虫。应用该模拟模型,对温度、病毒施用虫龄、病毒施用时间、病毒施用剂量等进行了灵敏度分析,得到了一些重要结论。
Studying the insect baculovirus epidemic simulation model has important theoretical and practical significance for determining the main attack direction of genetically engineered baculovirus, clarifying the epidemic mechanism and key factors of virus disease, and formulating biological control strategy. In this study, we developed a mathematical model and Java simulation software for insect baculovirus epidemiology. The model includes a differential equation describing population dynamics, several models describing changes in air temperature, crop growth and virus dynamics. The simulation software is developed with the toolkit JDK and JavaScript. It consists of the main computing class, graphics class, result display class, parameter input interface class, warning information class, home page, user guide page, copyright page and counting page. Enter the parameters in the parameter file such as crops, viruses, pests and other parameters, enter the initial health of all ages, the number of infected pests, leaf area, virus density, after running can output healthy, infected and dead insects, Crop loss, virus accumulation and other dynamic, as well as graphics and so on. The model is suitable for a variety of baculoviruses, all kinds of leafy crops, all kinds of leafy all-insect. Using this simulation model, the sensitivity analysis of temperature, age of application of virus, application time of virus and dosage of virus was carried out. Some important conclusions were obtained.