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十八届三中全会胜利闭幕,会议中提到了国民经济很多重要环节的改革,如金融市场改革、地方政府税收政策改革、国有企业改革等。随着改革的进一步深化,2014年国内股市将会有积极的表现,港股方面,恒生指数很可能触及28000点的高点,低位则应维持在21500点。2013年,上海自贸区建立。随着一系列政策的落实,自贸区很可能会代替外汇管理局在人民币结汇过程中起到更多的作用。离岸人民币和本土人民币将会在自贸区形成对流,并进行融合。在评估人民币流通量及流通速度的工作中,自贸区可能会比外管局更具灵活性,这在2014年值得期待。
The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China ended its victory. The meeting mentioned the reform of many important aspects of the national economy, such as financial market reform, the tax reform of local governments and the reform of state-owned enterprises. As the reform deepens, the domestic stock market will have a positive performance in 2014. For the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index is likely to hit a 28000 high and the low should be at 21 500. In 2013, Shanghai Free Trade Zone was established. With the implementation of a series of policies, the FTZ is likely to replace the SAFE to play a more important role in the settlement of RMB. Offshore renminbi and local renminbi will be formed in the free trade zone convection, and integration. In assessing the liquidity of RMB and the velocity of circulation, the FTZ may be more flexible than the SAFE, which is worth the wait in 2014.