对拱坝温度进行实时监控对工程进度和坝体安全具有重要意义。基于灰色系统理论,利用最小二乘法确定GM(1,1)白化权函数的时间响应函数中的常数C,从而构建GM(1,1)的时间响应函数的最优模型,用MATLAB语言编制程序预测模型,并以白莲崖拱坝温度监测数据为例进行分析、预测。结果表明,这种方法能较好地应用于小数据量监测数据的预测,且精度较高。 Real-time monitoring of arch dam temperature is of great significance to project progress and dam safety. Based on the gray system theory, the least square method is used to determine the constant C in the time response function of the GM (1,1) whitening weight function, so as to construct the optimal model of GM (1,1) time response function. Prediction model, and the Bailiangyu arch dam temperature monitoring data as an example for analysis and prediction. The results show that this method can be applied to the prediction of small data volume monitoring data with high accuracy.