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目的探讨ARIMA模型在手足口病发病率预测中的应用,为手足口病的早期防控提供依据。方法采用SPSS 19.0软件对2008—2014年无锡市锡山区各月手足口病发病率建立模型进行预测,采用2015年各月手足口病发病率验证模型的预测效果,并预测2016年锡山区手足口病的发病情况。结果模型ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)12所有参数均通过统计学检验;Box-Ljung检验统计量Q=16.007,P>0.05,残差序列为白噪声;拟合优度指标R2为0.713,贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)为4.619,模型拟合精度较好。根据2008—2015年锡山区手足口病发病数据应用此模型预测2016年的发病率为335.13/10万。结论 ARIMA模型能较好地模拟和预测手足口病的发病趋势,可用于手足口病的短期预测和动态分析。
Objective To investigate the application of ARIMA model in the prediction of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) incidence and provide the basis for early prevention and control of HFMD. Methods SPSS 19.0 software was used to predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xishan District of Wuxi City from 2008 to 2014. The prediction results of the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in each month in 2015 were predicted. In 2016, The incidence of disease. Results All parameters of model ARIMA (0,0,2) (0,1,1) 12 passed the statistical test; the Box-Ljung test statistic Q = 16.007, P> 0.05, the residual sequence was white noise; R2 is 0.713, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) is 4.619, the model fitting accuracy is better. According to the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xishan District from 2008 to 2015, this model is applied to predict the incidence in 2016 to be 335.13 / 100,000. Conclusion The ARIMA model can better simulate and predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and can be used for short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease.