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不同地区的房价受地区特定因素和社会普遍因素影响具有异质性和非独立性。本文同时考虑各城市房价、收入的异质性和非独立性,对中国中东部地区25个主要城市进行房价与收入的面板时空模型的估计与检验,克服了传统方法在模型估计和单位根检验时没有考虑变量非独立性而产生的谬误。实证结果表明中国房价和居民可支配收入协整。通过因子载荷估计发现目前全国范围已出现泡沫迹象,杭州,宁波房价泡沫最严重。同时指出在衡量房地产市场是否存在泡沫时,房价收入比指标为非稳定序列,用此指标来衡量是否存在房地产泡沫缺乏依据。
Housing prices in different regions are heterogeneous and non-independent due to the influence of the specific factors in the region and the general social factors. In this paper, we consider the price and income heterogeneity and independency in each city, estimate and test the panel space-time model of housing price and income in 25 major cities in the central and eastern regions of China, and overcome the shortcomings of traditional methods in model estimation and unit root test When did not consider the variables caused by the independency fallacy. Empirical results show that China’s housing prices and residents disposable income cointegration. Through factor load estimation found that the current nationwide signs of bubbles have emerged, Hangzhou, Ningbo, housing bubble the most serious. At the same time, it is pointed out that when measuring the existence of bubbles in the real estate market, the price-to-income ratio is an unstable series of indicators, and the index is used to measure the existence of a real estate bubble.