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近几年,特别是金融危机以来,国际原油价格波动剧烈。我国作为原油消耗大国,经济稳定增长受到一定的冲击。本文首先对国际原油价格波动情况进行了分析。然后,通过构建时间序列模型对国际油价波动与我国经济增长关系进行实证研究,发现国际原油价格的波动对我国经济增长的影响是非对称的。最后,提出了应对国际原油价格剧烈波动的对策建议。
In recent years, especially since the financial crisis, the international crude oil price has fluctuated violently. As a big oil-consuming country, China’s economy has a certain impact on its steady growth. This article first analyzes the fluctuation of international crude oil price. Then, by constructing a time series model, this paper conducts an empirical study on the relationship between the fluctuation of international oil prices and the economic growth in our country. It is found that the fluctuation of the international crude oil prices has an asymmetrical influence on the economic growth in our country. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions for dealing with the drastic fluctuation of international crude oil price are put forward.