交通事故预测是交通安全研究的重要内容,是提高道路交通安全水平的基础。为研究乌鲁木齐市道路交通事故发展趋势,在分析交通事故灰色特性的基础上,以乌鲁木齐市道路交通事故统计资料为基础,运用改进的灰色预测模型进行交通事故伤亡人数预测。结果表明,改进的灰色预测模型比传统灰色预测模型精度提高了74.98%。 Traffic accident prediction is an important part of traffic safety research and is the basis for improving the level of road traffic safety. In order to study the development trend of road traffic accidents in Urumqi, based on the analysis of the gray characteristics of traffic accidents and the traffic accident statistical data of Urumqi, the improved gray forecasting model was used to predict the number of traffic accidents and casualties. The results show that the improved gray prediction model is 74.98% more accurate than the traditional gray prediction model.