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为了利用专家知识提供的非统计信息支持带有不确定性的决策,本文建立和发展了可能性证据理论。论述了以可能性证据作为判断不确定性的专家知识的表示的合理性,建立了可能性证据推理的逻辑框架,并说明了可能性证据理论用于不确定性决策分析的方法。本文为开发EXDASS系统的不确定性分析知识库建立了理论基础。
In order to support the decision-making with uncertainty by using the non-statistical information provided by expert knowledge, this paper establishes and develops the theory of probability evidence. This paper discusses the rationality of using the evidence of probability as the representation of the expert knowledge to judge the uncertainty, establishes the logical framework of possibility evidence reasoning, and illustrates the method of the possibility evidence theory used in the uncertainty decision analysis. This article establishes the theoretical foundation for developing the uncertainty analysis knowledge base of EXDASS system.