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利用截止2014年底全国主要构造区跨断层流动形变资料,通过断层形变异常时空演变分析、特征强度指标计算,参考GPS速度场结果,寻找与2013~2014年青藏高原东缘芦山、岷县漳县、鲁甸、景谷Ms6.5~7.0级强震成组活跃可能有关的大区域构造活动变化背景及短期前兆异常。结果表明,2013~2014年强震成组活跃很可能与2010年以来青藏高原东缘构造活动整体性加速有关;位于测区内的芦山Ms7.0级和岷县漳县Ms6.6级地震,短期前兆异常显著;而位于测区外围的鲁甸Ms6.5级和景谷Ms6.6级地震,短期前兆异常相对偏弱。
Based on the cross-fault flow deformation data of major tectonic zones in China as of the end of 2014, through the spatial-temporal evolution analysis of fault anomalies and the calculation of characteristic intensity indices, referring to the GPS velocity field results, Ludian, Jinggu Ms6.5 ~ 7.0 strong earthquakes may be related to active large-scale regional tectonic activity background and short-term precursory anomalies. The results show that the active group of strong earthquakes from 2013 to 2014 is probably related to the overall acceleration of tectonic activities in the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau since 2010; Ms6.0 of Lushan and Ms6.6 of Zhangxian County of Min County located in the survey area, The short-term precursors have significant anomalies. However, the short-term precursory anomalies are relatively weaker in the Lu6 Ms6.5 and Jingu Ms6.6 earthquakes outside the survey area.