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梯级水电站负荷调整方案的优选直接关系到发电部门可获取的效益及面临的风险,鉴于现有风险-效益协同评价指标体系不完备,尚无法对其进行全面、有效评价与决策的问题,本文基于梯级水电站实际发电运行过程,建立了负荷调整风险效益协同评价指标体系,并给出了“发电风险率”、“负荷变动风险率”和“风险机会损失”等新指标的定义与计算方法;同时,针对传统灰靶决策模型忽略指标相关性的不足,将相关系数矩阵引入该模型中以代替马氏距离中的协方差矩阵,并定义相对靶心距来实现非劣方案的评价决策,由此建立了一种改进灰靶决策模型;将所建指标体系与改进模型应用于雅砻江流域锦官电源组梯级水电站负荷调整方案评价,计算结果与传统灰靶决策模型和基于马氏距离的灰靶决策模型相比,本文模型的评价结果更具合理性,可为科学实施梯级水电站负荷调整提供重要的依据和技术支撑。
The optimization of load adjustment schemes of cascaded hydropower stations is directly related to the benefits and risks that the power generation departments can obtain. In view of the incomplete evaluation system of risk-benefit synergies, it is impossible to conduct a comprehensive and effective evaluation and decision-making. The cascade hydropower station actual power generation operation process, the establishment of a load adjustment risk benefit collaborative evaluation index system, and gives the “power generation risk rate”, “load change risk rate” and “risk opportunity loss” and other new indicators At the same time, aiming at the deficiency of traditional gray target decision model ignoring the correlation of indicators, the correlation coefficient matrix is introduced into the model instead of the covariance matrix in Mahalanobis distance and the relative target distance is defined to realize the non-inferior solution Evaluation and decision-making, a gray target model is established to improve the gray target model. The proposed index system and the improved model are applied to the load adjustment scheme evaluation of the cascade hydropower station in the Jinjiang Power Station in the Yalong River. The calculated results are compared with the traditional gray target decision model Compared with the gray target decision model of Mahalanobis distance, the evaluation results of this model are more reasonable and can be used for scientific implementation of cascade hydropower station load Whole provide an important basis and technical support.