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目的分析淮安市其他感染性腹泻的流行病学特征,并探讨ARIMA模型拟合淮安市其他感染性腹泻发病趋势预测的可行性。方法采用Excel 2003和Arc Gis 10对淮安市2004—2014年其他感染性腹泻的发病特征进行分析,应用EViews 5.0对月发病数进行拟合与预测。结果淮安市其他感染性腹泻的流行周期为3~5 a,10至11月份为每年的发病高峰;主城区的发病率高于其他地区;0~3岁的男童是高发人群;ARIMA(2,1,3)(1,1,1)12模型较好地拟合了淮安市其他感染性腹泻的月发病数列,预测效果良好。结论淮安市其他感染性腹泻发病具有周期性和季节性等特点,可以应用ARIMA模型进行短期预测,对开展预防控制措施具有指导意义。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Huai’an City and to explore the feasibility of ARIMA model in predicting the trend of other infectious diarrhea in Huai’an City. Methods Excel 2003 and Arc Gis 10 were used to analyze the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Huaian from 2004 to 2014. EViews 5.0 was used to fit and forecast the monthly incidence. Results The prevalence of other infectious diarrhea in Huai’an was 3-5 years. The peak incidence was from October to November in each city. The prevalence in the main urban area was higher than that in other areas. The prevalence of ARIMA (2 , 1,3) (1, 1, 1) 12 model is a good fit for monthly incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Huaian, the prediction effect is good. Conclusion The incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Huaian City is cyclical and seasonal. ARIMA model can be used for short-term prediction, which is instructive for prevention and control measures.