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使用2003年对中国3000个农户的抽样调查数据,采用工具变量分位数回归法(IVQR),在考虑异质性影响和内生性问题的基础上,实证估计了农户借贷的经济影响.研究结果表明,借贷从整体上显著促进了农户经营收入的增加,但对不同收入层次的农户的产出影响具有明显的异质性.借款对最贫困和最富有的农户的收入作用不明显,但是显著促进了中低收入农户产出的增加,其产出弹性约为0.08.由于目前我国农村金融资源的分配明显偏向富有的农户,这为中低收入农户面临信贷约束提供了证据.使用2SLS与普通分位数回归方法(QR)得到的估计都存在较大的偏差.
Using the sample survey data of 3000 Chinese households in 2003 and using the IVQR of the tool variables, the economic impact of peasants’ borrowing is empirically estimated based on the consideration of heterogeneity and endogeneity.Results It shows that lending can significantly increase the operating income of farmers as a whole, but has obvious heterogeneity in the output of farmers with different income levels.The borrowing has no significant effect on the income of the poorest and richest households, but it is significant Which has promoted the output increase of middle and low-income rural households with output elasticity of about 0.08. At present, the distribution of rural financial resources in our country is obviously biased toward rich ones, which provides evidence for the credit constraints faced by low-and-middle-income rural households. Quantile regression method (QR) estimates have large deviations.