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During this year’s Spring Festival holiday（January 27 to February 2）， the real estate markets in most Chinese cities were cooling down. The number of transactions in many first- and second-tier cities， such as Shanghai， Nanjing， Suzhou and Hangzhou， declined remarkably， even going below 10 in some. In Shanghai， for instance， only eight projects had transactions， each selling only one apartment. But during last year’s Spring Festival holiday， 24 real estate projects recorded sales.
Besides the holiday factor， the cooling down of the property market during the period was caused by two other major reasons. First， in 2016， home prices in major Chinese cities soared unprecedentedly fast， and prices had remained quite high. Second， since the latter half of 2016， local governments started strict macro control of the market， which raised the threshold for home purchases. Under such conditions， those buying homes for investment have become more prudent， while buyers with rigid demand either can’t meet buying requirements or have chosen to wait for a possible decline of prices.
These special circumstances in the property market， especially the strict macro control measures， have led to reduced transactions. Once again taking Shanghai as an example， only 949 square meters of newly constructed commercial residential buildings were sold in the city during this year’s Spring Festival holiday week， according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd. It was 71.1 percent lower than the deals clinched during last year’s Spring Festival holiday period， as well as the lowest fi gure since 2011.
This was because the Shanghai Municipal Government issued a six-point macro control policy for the market， as well as stricter supervision measures on home loans in October and November 2016， respectively. Also， from January 6， Shanghai’s housing authority and related departments started examining office building projects and suspending their transactions during this period.
Local governments are taking strict measures to control the market due to the Central Government’s directive to prevent risks and advance reforms. In 2016， land auction prices soared， mortgage loans accounted for a high proportion of the country’s total credit， and soaring property prices pushed up costs for the real economy. All this increased risks in the real estate market.
Since the second half of last year， the Central Government has repeatedly emphasized that risks should be prevented in the real estate market. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2016 also stressed that “houses are built to be inhabited， not used for speculation，” thereby setting the keynote for the market in 2017. However， as for the results of macro control， the cooling down of the real estate markets in first- and second-tier cities is unlikely to continue for long and will not be the market’s turning point. Although the government’s intentions for adopting control measures are good， the tight supplies in the fi rst- and second-tier cities have not yet changed.
In 2017， regardless of whether the con- trol measures continue throughout the year， Beijing and Shanghai have decided to reduce land supplies in the future. With land supplies in fi rst- and second-tier cities depressed while the rigid demand for houses grows but is not satisfi ed， it is very likely that house prices will increase moderately this year.
From the perspective of supply and demand， the real estate market is cooling not only because macro control measures are strict， but also because some of the housing demand was satisfied during the first half of 2016 when the policies were comparatively relaxed. In the long term， to develop the industry in a sound and stable way， the government still needs long-term marketoriented schemes， such as improving the urban layout to replace macro control measures.
Besides the holiday factor， the cooling down of the property market during the period was caused by two other major reasons. First， in 2016， home prices in major Chinese cities soared unprecedentedly fast， and prices had remained quite high. Second， since the latter half of 2016， local governments started strict macro control of the market， which raised the threshold for home purchases. Under such conditions， those buying homes for investment have become more prudent， while buyers with rigid demand either can’t meet buying requirements or have chosen to wait for a possible decline of prices.
These special circumstances in the property market， especially the strict macro control measures， have led to reduced transactions. Once again taking Shanghai as an example， only 949 square meters of newly constructed commercial residential buildings were sold in the city during this year’s Spring Festival holiday week， according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd. It was 71.1 percent lower than the deals clinched during last year’s Spring Festival holiday period， as well as the lowest fi gure since 2011.
This was because the Shanghai Municipal Government issued a six-point macro control policy for the market， as well as stricter supervision measures on home loans in October and November 2016， respectively. Also， from January 6， Shanghai’s housing authority and related departments started examining office building projects and suspending their transactions during this period.
Local governments are taking strict measures to control the market due to the Central Government’s directive to prevent risks and advance reforms. In 2016， land auction prices soared， mortgage loans accounted for a high proportion of the country’s total credit， and soaring property prices pushed up costs for the real economy. All this increased risks in the real estate market.
Since the second half of last year， the Central Government has repeatedly emphasized that risks should be prevented in the real estate market. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of 2016 also stressed that “houses are built to be inhabited， not used for speculation，” thereby setting the keynote for the market in 2017. However， as for the results of macro control， the cooling down of the real estate markets in first- and second-tier cities is unlikely to continue for long and will not be the market’s turning point. Although the government’s intentions for adopting control measures are good， the tight supplies in the fi rst- and second-tier cities have not yet changed.
In 2017， regardless of whether the con- trol measures continue throughout the year， Beijing and Shanghai have decided to reduce land supplies in the future. With land supplies in fi rst- and second-tier cities depressed while the rigid demand for houses grows but is not satisfi ed， it is very likely that house prices will increase moderately this year.
From the perspective of supply and demand， the real estate market is cooling not only because macro control measures are strict， but also because some of the housing demand was satisfied during the first half of 2016 when the policies were comparatively relaxed. In the long term， to develop the industry in a sound and stable way， the government still needs long-term marketoriented schemes， such as improving the urban layout to replace macro control measures.