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本文对今年7～10月份国际奶业市场进行了概述。从新西兰恒天然环球乳制品交易(gDT)指数,FAO食品价格指数和乳制品价格指数,近期新西兰、澳大利亚、美国和欧盟,以及南美洲的巴西、阿根廷的奶业情况,美国2号黄玉米及DDGS出口至中国的价格情况等几个方面对近期国际奶业形势进行了分析。在10月份的两次交易中,环球乳制品交易指数一跌一涨,由于国际供应增加而需求相对不足,国际市场的乳制品价格很可能会继续走低。粮农组织乳制品价格指数10月份平均为204点,比9月份下降5%,保持在与2010年10月大致相同的水平上。新西兰7月份的牛奶产量达到16.2万t,同比大幅增长8.7%。农场收购价格走势比较平稳,折合人民币2.89元/kg。9月份乳制品的出口额达9.66亿新西兰元,继续稳居各类商品出口的首位。澳大利亚9月份共生产牛奶95.5万t,同比大幅度上涨6.4%,累积产量达到238.3万t,增长了2.2%,产量有加速增长的趋势。美国今年的月度牛奶产量全面高于去年同期,9月份的产量达到716.8万t,同比增长1.69%。估计美国全年的产量增长将在1%～2%之间。10月份牛奶价格为2.80元/kg,在经济前景不稳和国际供给相对过剩的情况下,价格有进一步下滑的可能。6～8月份,美国干乳制品出口399332t,同比大幅增长5%。8月份的出口保持增长势头,出口价值达427百万美元,创下历史新高,同比增长26%。8月份欧盟的产奶量为1151.0万t,同比增长1.09%,前4个月累计牛奶产量6035.2万t,累计同比增长1.82%。由于今年配额的增长仅为1%,因此产量增速很可能会降下来。欧盟9月份的平均原料奶收购价格是36.16欧元/100kg,环比增长0.8%,总体平稳。而前8个月欧盟的乳制品出口继续增长。南美国家中,巴西的原料奶价格自7月份以来连续下降,10月份为3.13元/kg,已经低于中国10月份3.22元/kg的水平;而阿根廷9月份的原料奶收购价格为2.22元/kg,大幅度低于中国。
This article from July to October this year, an overview of the international dairy market. From the New Zealand gTT index, the FAO food price index and the dairy price index, the recent dairy industry in New Zealand, Australia, the United States and the European Union, Brazil and Argentina in South America, the United States No. 2 yellow corn and DDGS exports to China, the price of several other aspects of the recent international dairy industry situation were analyzed. In two deals in October, the Global Dairy Exchange Index was up and down one after the other, with the relative lack of demand due to the increase in international supply, and the prices of dairy products in the international market are likely to continue to decline. The FAO dairy price index averaged 204 points in October, a 5% drop from September and remained about the same level as in October 2010. New Zealand’s milk production in July reached 162,000 t, a substantial increase of 8.7% over the same period last year. The trend of the farm purchase price is relatively stable, equivalent to 2.89 yuan / kg. Exports of dairy products in September amounted to 966 million New Zealand Dollars, ranking first in exports of various commodities. Australia produced 955,000 tonnes of milk in September, a substantial increase of 6.4% over the same period of last year and a cumulative production volume of 2,383,000 tonnes, an increase of 2.2%. The output has accelerated its growth. The U.S. milk production in the United States this year is higher than the same period of last year. The output in September reached 7,168,000 tons, an increase of 1.69% over the same period of last year. It is estimated that annual output growth in the United States will be between 1% and 2%. In October, the milk price was 2.80 yuan / kg. Under the situation of unstable economic outlook and relative surplus of international supply, the price may drop further. From June to August, the export of dry dairy products from the United States was 3,993,300 tons, a substantial increase of 5% over the same period of previous year. Exports in August maintained the momentum of growth with exports reaching a record high of 427 million U.S. dollars, up 26% over the same period last year. In August, the EU’s milk production was 11.51 million tons, up 1.09% from the previous year. The cumulative milk production in the first four months was 60.352 million tons, an increase of 1.82% from the previous year. With only 1% growth in quotas this year, output growth is likely to drop. The average purchase price of raw milk in the EU in September was 36.16 euros / 100kg, up 0.8% from the previous month and generally stable. The EU’s dairy exports continued to grow in the first eight months. South American countries, Brazil’s raw milk prices have dropped continuously since July, 3.13 yuan / kg in October, China has been lower than the level of 3.22 yuan / kg in October; Argentina’s raw milk purchase price in September was 2.22 yuan / kg, significantly lower than China.