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该文研究了中国于2013年9月重启国债期货交易对利率市场波动性的影响。基于双重差分模型和双向集群标准误差调整,实证检验了国债期货对于利率波动性的影响,并应用倾向得分匹配方法进行了稳健性检验。结果发现:国债期货正式交易的推出显著降低了利率市场的波动性;国债期货仿真交易的推出也降低了波动性,但是降低幅度小于国债期货的正式推出。据此,加快国债期货市场建设,推出更加多元化的国债期货合约,能提高利率市场的稳定性。
This paper studies the impact of the resumption of treasury bond futures trading in China on the volatility of the interest rate market in September 2013. Based on the double difference model and the bidirectional cluster standard error adjustment, this paper empirically tests the effect of bond futures on interest rate volatility, and proves the robustness by propensity score matching method. The result shows that the introduction of official trading of bond futures significantly reduces the volatility of the interest rate market. The launch of the treasury bond futures trading simulation also reduces the volatility, but the reduction is less than the official launch of the bond futures. Accordingly, accelerating the construction of the bond futures market and launching a more diversified bond futures contract will increase the stability of the interest rate market.