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近期农产品价格波动较为频繁,影响着居民的基本生活需求。本文运用Census-X12方法,以猪肉价格为例,证实了农产品市场价格季节性波动的客观性;以此为基础,通过建立误差修正模型(ECM),定量分析了季节性因素对农产品市场价格的影响程度,由此提出应对和预防农产品价格波动的对策建议。
Recently, the price of agricultural products fluctuates more frequently, affecting the residents’ basic living needs. In this paper, the Census-X12 method was used to demonstrate the objectivity of seasonal fluctuations of market prices of agricultural products, taking the pork price as an example. Based on this, an error correction model (ECM) was established to quantitatively analyze the effect of seasonal factors on market prices of agricultural products The degree of influence, and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to deal with and prevent the price fluctuations of agricultural products.