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我国对外贸易的结构和方式正在发生深刻变化,处于全球价值链低端的加工贸易方式已经显示出较大的负面作用,作为劳动力密集型产品的出口大国,出口对就业的影响再次提上议题。本文利用2000-2007年持续存活的工业企业数据系统考察了企业出口对就业结构、就业总规模、技术工人就业规模、非技术工人就业规模的影响,结果发现企业出口并不支持新新贸易理论框架下贸易对就业的筛选机制,出口带来两类工人就业规模扩大的同时,降低了技术工人的就业比例,恶化了工人的就业结构。而且高技术企业、港澳台外的其他外资企业、泛珠江三角洲地区企业受影响尤其明显。这一结论有助于我们从出口的福利效应角度来调整和部署正在转型的贸易政策。
The structure and mode of China’s foreign trade are undergoing profound changes. The mode of processing trade at the lower end of the global value chain has shown a greater negative effect. As a big exporter of labor-intensive products, the impact of export on employment is once again on the agenda. This paper examines the impact of export on employment structure, total employment scale, the employment scale of unskilled workers and the employment scale of unskilled workers by using the continuous existence of industrial enterprises data system from 2000 to 2007 and finds that the export of enterprises does not support the new theoretical framework of new trade Under the trade screening mechanism for employment, exports have led to the expansion of the employment scale of both categories of workers, while reducing the employment ratio of skilled workers and worsening the employment structure of workers. Moreover, high-tech enterprises, other foreign-funded enterprises outside Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and enterprises in the Pan-Pearl River Delta region are especially affected. This conclusion helps us to adjust and deploy the transitioning trade policy from the perspective of the welfare effect of exports.