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随着我国不断深化经济体制改革和市场经济的发展,我国的财政收入和GDP都有了较大幅度的增长。本文对1994-2014年北京市、天津市和河北省面板数据建立固定效应影响模型,就经济增长对财政收入的影响进行了实证分析。随后本文又考虑失业率、工业增加值以及居民储蓄三个因素对财政收入的影响,以北京市为例,通过构建VAR模型进行分析,分析结果显示:1994年以来,京津冀三市的人均财政收入随着三市人均GDP和产业结构的变化而变化。此外,失业率也是影响财政收入的一个因素。
As China continues to deepen the reform of the economic system and the development of the market economy, China’s fiscal revenue and GDP have enjoyed a substantial increase. This paper establishes a fixed effect impact model on the panel data of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from 1994 to 2014 and makes an empirical analysis on the impact of economic growth on fiscal revenue. Then this article also consider the impact of unemployment, industrial added value and household savings on fiscal revenue. Taking Beijing as an example, this paper analyzes the results of building a VAR model. The results show that since 1994, the average per capita of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Fiscal revenue varies with per capita GDP and industrial structure in the three cities. In addition, unemployment is also a factor that affects fiscal revenue.