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14至17世纪,西域农业经济发展总体呈现出曲折发展的态势,先后经历了初期的严重衰退、中期的逐步恢复以及后期的加速发展三个阶段。同时,天山以南绿洲农业经济的恢复发展早于天山以北地区,而且规模也更大。究其原因,不难发现,这一时期西域气候由暖转寒进入小冰期,并发生阶段性的冷暖干湿变化,是给农业生产造成较大影响的重要自然原因。而由气候变动等因素诱发的西域、中亚政治经济动荡则是影响农业经济发展的重要社会原因。总之,在生态脆弱、绿洲规模狭小分散的西域地区,绿洲农业经济受到自然、社会因素的影响极大。而只有通过积极应对,加强与中原等地区的农业技术、品种交流,稳定西域政治经济关系,才能实现西域农业经济的恢复发展。
From the 14th to the 17th century, the agricultural economic development in the western region showed an overall trend of twists and turns. It experienced three stages of a serious initial recession, a gradual recovery in the medium term and an accelerated development in the latter part of the world. Meanwhile, the recovery and development of agro-economy in the oasis south of Tianshan is earlier than the area north of Tianshan and is larger in scale. The reason is not difficult to find that during this period, the Western Hemisphere climate changed from warm to cold in the Little Ice Age, and the seasonal warm, cold and wet changes occurred, which was an important natural cause to agricultural production. However, the political and economic turmoil induced by climate change and other factors in Western and Central Asia is an important social reason that affects the development of agricultural economy. In short, in the ecologically fragile and scattered oasis in the western region, the oasis agricultural economy is greatly affected by natural and social factors. Only by actively coping with and strengthening the exchange of agricultural technologies and varieties with the Central Plains and other regions and stabilizing the political and economic relations in the Western Regions can the recovery and development of the agricultural economy in the Western Regions be realized.