风能、太阳能具有很强的随机性、波动性和间歇性，如何反映其对电力系统经济性和可靠性的影响，对电力系统随机生产模拟的灵敏性和准确性提出了更高要求。针对传统随机生产模拟忽略负荷及新能源时序变化特性，不能考虑机组和系统动态运行约束，不便计算机组冷、热启停和动态费用等问题，该文提出一种随机生产模拟新方法。该方法严格保留负荷及新能源时序变化特性，综合考虑系统旋转备用和爬坡约束，以及机组最小开停机时间、启动失败和爬坡时间等因素，建立了能多角度反映系统可靠性、生产成本的技术经济指标。文中给出了方法的理论基础、算法实现和算例，验证了方法的合理性和有效性。“,”The intermittent, random and uncertain characteristics of the energy harvested from solar or wind are threatening the commercial efficiency and reliability of power system, and how to reflect these impacts becomes a big challenge to the improvement of sensitivity and accuracy of the power system probabilistic production simulation. In this paper, we proposed a novel algorithm for probabilistic production simulation, in order to solve the problems like the ignored time sequence characteristics of loads and new energy sources, the cold or hot units’ start-up and their dynamic costs. The proposed algorithm established technical and economic indicators which reflected the system reliability and production cost based on the analysis of the system spinning reserve and ramp rate constraints, the minimum start-up and shut-down times, start-up failure rate and climbing time and other factors. The correctness and validity of our algorithm have been verified.