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利用最新的Ｐｅｎｍａｎ－Ｍｏｎｔｅｉｔｈ参考蒸散估算方法，计算了华北各地历年小麦各发育阶段的相对蒸散。根据水分亏缺引起的不同减产程度，确定冬小麦各发育阶段干旱指标，并据此分析了小麦干旱程度及发生概率。建立了冬小麦干旱影响综合评估模式。结果表明，干旱指标农业意义明确，分析评估符合实际。利用综合考虑冬季严寒和生育期内各阶段水分状况的模式进行农业干旱影响评估的尝试取得了较好的效果。
Using the latest Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration method, the relative evapotranspiration at different developmental stages of wheat over North China was calculated. According to the different yield reduction caused by water deficit, the drought index of winter wheat in each developmental stage was determined, and the degree and occurrence probability of wheat drought were analyzed. Established a comprehensive assessment of the impact of winter wheat drought. The results show that the drought index has clear agricultural significance and the analysis and evaluation are in line with the actual conditions. Attempts have been made to assess the impact of agricultural drought on the comprehensively considering the patterns of water in winter during severe cold and growth stages.