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所谓普雷维什—辛格新假说,是指自20世纪80年代以来,发展中国家工业制成品和服务产品的贸易条件相对于发达国家呈现出长期恶化的趋势。发展中国家工业制成品和服务产品的贸易条件之所以呈现出长期恶化的趋势,是其参与“新国际分工”的方式,即从价值链低端融入“全球公司”掌控的全球价值链并受其支配的结果。按照普雷维什—辛格假说(发展中国家初级产品贸易条件呈现出长期恶化趋势),“经济发展的出路在于工业化”成为发展中国家具有普遍性的经济发展战略。但在“新国际分工”的历史条件下,这一战略已不再成立。作为发展中大国的中国,只有建立本国独立自主的高端价值链,才能从根本上扭转工业制成品和服务产品贸易条件恶化的趋势,并最终实现强国富民的战略目标。
The so-called Prebisch-Singh new hypothesis refers to the long-term deterioration of the terms of trade of industrial products and service products of developing countries relative to that of developed countries since the 1980s. The reason why the terms of trade of developing countries’ manufactured goods and service products have shown a long-term deterioration is their participation in the “new international division of labor,” ie, from the lower end of the value chain to the control of “global corporations” The result of and at the disposal of global value chains. According to the Prebisch-Singh hypothesis (the long-term deterioration trend in the terms of trade of developing countries’ primary products), “the outlet for economic development lies in industrialization” has become a universal economic development strategy for developing countries. However, under the historical conditions of “new international division of labor,” this strategy no longer holds. As a developing country, China can only fundamentally reverse the deterioration of the terms of trade of manufactured goods and service products and finally realize the strategic goal of strengthening the country and enriching the people by establishing an independent high-end value chain of its own.