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目的分析2009-2014年内蒙古地区手足口病的时空分布特征,为手足口病的防控以及卫生资源的合理配置提供科学依据。方法利用R软件对2009-2014年内蒙古手足口病监测数据进行描述性流行病学分析。采用基于离散Poisson模型的时空扫描统计量,使用Sa TScan 9.1软件完成时空聚集性扫描分析,扫描空间单位为内蒙古的102个旗县区,扫描时间单位为月,跨度从2009年1月-2014年12月,由Arc GIS 10.2软件进行扫描结果的可视化展示。结果描述性分析结果显示,内蒙古地区手足口病的发病率呈现明显的季节性变化规律,每年的5月-7月为手足口病的异常高发时间,且每年的发病呈双峰分布,第二发病高峰出现在每年的9月-11月;0~5岁年龄组儿童是主要的发病病例,所有病例中散居儿童占59.99%,男性儿童的发病率明显高于女性儿童。Sa TScan时空扫描分析显示,手足口病发病存在明显的时空聚集性,时间维度为6-7月,空间维度上分别扫描出3、3、7、2、3和3个手足口病聚集区域。结论2009-2014年内蒙古地区手足口病西南地区高发,5-7月是主要流行高峰,发病存在时空聚集性,季节性发病规律明显,聚集区存在于内蒙古中东部和西南。
Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of HFMD in Inner Mongolia from 2009 to 2014 and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFMD and the rational allocation of health resources. Methods A descriptive epidemiological analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease surveillance data from 2009 to 2014 in Inner Mongolia was conducted using R software. Spatiotemporal clustering analysis using Sa TScan 9.1 software was performed using spatio-temporal scanning statistics based on the discrete Poisson model. The scanning unit was 102 flag counties in Inner Mongolia. The scanning time was in months and the span was from January 2009 to 2014 December, Arc GIS 10.2 software for visualization of scan results. Results The results of descriptive analysis showed that the incidence of HFMD in Inner Mongolia showed a seasonal variation. The annual incidence of HFMD in May-July was extremely high, and the incidence of HFMD was bimodal. The second The incidence peak appeared in September-November of each year. The children aged 0-5 years old were the major incidence cases. In all the cases, 59.99% were scattered children, while the incidence of male children was significantly higher than that of female children. Sa TScan spatio-temporal scanning analysis showed that the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease was significantly spatiotemporal aggregation, the time dimension was from June to July, and the spatial dimensions were swept up to 3, 3, 7, 2, 3 and 3 hand-foot-mouth disease area. Conclusions In 2009-2014, hand-foot-mouth disease in Inner Mongolia was high in the southwest of China. From May to July, it was the main epidemic peak. The incidence of the disease was spatiotemporal aggregation and the seasonal incidence was obvious. The aggregation area existed in the middle and eastern part of Inner Mongolia and the southwest of China.