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灌溉变动供水年调节计算现行方法只有一种时历法,该法尚存在一些众所周知的问题。本文根据灌溉水库变动供水特性,将调节年度划分为蓄水期和供水期,并且把灌溉变动供水年调节水库模拟成服从离散化的皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布的随机输入存贮系统,应用存贮系统的概率理论,建立供水期初水库稳定蓄水状态概率分布的非齐次线性方程组,经数值解法;再通过可靠性分析,算出兴利库容相应的保证率。经实例计算,与年调节计算时历法成果作对比分析。
There is only one type of calendar method for calculating the current method of adjusting annual water supply for irrigation. There are some well-known problems with this law. According to the changing characteristics of irrigation reservoirs, the adjustment year is divided into the storage period and the water supply period, and the annual irrigation water supply regulation reservoir simulation to follow the discrete Pearson Ⅲ type random input storage system, the application of storage systems Probability theory of water supply, and establish the nonhomogeneous linear equations of the probability distribution of the stable water storage state at the beginning of the water supply, and then calculate the corresponding guarantee rate through the reliability analysis. The case calculation, and the annual adjustment of the calendar calculation results for comparative analysis.