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中国房地产发展的总格局和总趋势是,在高结构、高贡献、高平台、高价位、国民经济高速增长的基础上,持续约半个世纪的长期高位增长。中国房地产长期高位增长的客观理论依据是房地产发展倒U曲线,即一个国家在经济起飞时期,随着国内生产总值的增长,房地产以高于国内生产总值的增长速度快速增长,而随着国内生产总值的进一步增长,房地产增长速度逐渐减缓,直至与国内生产总值同速,其运行轨迹呈倒U曲线。中国房地产长期高位增长,并不意味着不存在问题或隐患,加强政府宏观调控,消除隐患,防止泡沫,是实现中国房地产长期高位增长和安全运行的保证。
The overall pattern and overall trend of China’s real estate development is that it lasted for about half a century at a time of high-level long-term growth on the basis of the rapid growth of high structure, high contribution, high platform, high price and national economy. The objective theory of long-term high growth of real estate in China is based on the inverse U-curve of real estate development. That is to say, in a country’s economic take-off period, with the growth of gross domestic product, real estate rapidly grows at a rate higher than the growth of gross domestic product With the further growth of the GDP and the slowdown of the real estate growth, the running track of the real estate is inverted U-curve until it is at the same speed as the GDP. The long-term high growth of real estate in China does not mean that there are no problems or hidden dangers. Strengthening macro-control of the government, eliminating hidden dangers and preventing bubbles is a guarantee to achieve long-term high growth and safe operation of real estate in China.