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大坝安全评价是一个多因素、多层次、具有复合不确定性的复杂综合评价问题.针对大坝安全监测信息中普遍存在的不确定性,将专门研究不确定性问题的云模型理论引入到大坝安全综合评价之中,提出了基于云模型的大坝安全多层次综合评价方法.该方法采用具有稳定倾向性的一组随机数代替具有唯一性的模糊隶属度,利用云发生器生成隶属云,得到由云模型数字特征刻画的、顾及监测信息不确定性的大坝安全综合评价结果.该评价结果不仅可以对大坝安全状态作出合理评价,而且可以描述大坝安全评价结果的可信性,以及不确定性给大坝安全评价结果带来的不稳定性.实例表明,本文所提出的基于云模型的大坝安全综合评价方法是合理、可行的,为大坝安全评价提供了一条比传统的模糊综合评价方法更优越的新途径.
The dam safety evaluation is a complex and comprehensive evaluation problem with multi-factor, multi-level and compound uncertainties.According to the ubiquitous uncertainty in the dam safety monitoring information, a cloud model theory that specializes in uncertainty is introduced to Based on the comprehensive safety assessment of dam, a comprehensive multi-level dam safety assessment method based on cloud model is proposed. This method uses a set of random numbers with stable tendency instead of the unique fuzzy membership degree, Cloud and get the result of comprehensive evaluation of dam safety, which is characterized by the digital characteristics of cloud model and takes into account the uncertainty of monitoring information, which can not only make a reasonable assessment of dam safety status, but also can describe the credibility of dam safety evaluation results As well as the instability brought about by the uncertainty to the dam safety evaluation results.Examples show that the proposed cloud safety model based on the cloud model is reasonable and feasible and provides a More superior than the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of new ways.