今年一季度,国际经济表现欠佳。美国经济数据喜忧参半,复苏前景仍存不确定性,货币政策信号一波三折;欧洲主要经济数据持续不佳,货币政策宽松超预期;日本经济难言乐观,表明负利率作用有限。受此影响,美元指数回落,大宗商品波动筑底,新兴市场资金流出压力缓解。我国基于制造业PMI的回升,实体需求短期确有好转迹象,但短期改善并不代表经济增长动力的增强,从长期看,经济下行压力依然较大。 In the first quarter of this year, the international economy did not perform well. There are still many uncertainties in the recovery of the U.S. economic data. The monetary policy signals have been mixed. The major economic data in Europe continued to be sluggish and monetary policy easing exceeded expectations. The Japanese economy is optimistic that the negative interest rate effect is limited. Affected by this, the dollar index fell, commodity fluctuations bottomed, outflow of emerging market pressure on capital outflows. China’s recovery based on the manufacturing PMI, the real demand for signs of improvement in the short term, but short-term improvement does not mean that the economic growth impetus to enhance the long run, the downward pressure on the economy is still large.