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与国际经验相比,中国经济长期以来呈现出多重失衡的特征,中国经济多重失衡必然是由某些“异常”因素所致。基于利率管制的视角,本文在统一的框架下解释了本世纪初中国经济多重失衡的六个核心现象:产业结构快速资本深化,城市化滞后于工业化进程,就业增长速度落后于经济增长速度,劳动报酬增长滞后于劳动生产率增长,国民收入分配不断从居民向企业和政府倾斜,消费占GDP比重持续下降。相互关联的多重失衡是利率管制下中国经济“结构性动态无效率”的表现,“扭曲的增长”在未来难以持续。为使“改革”赢得与“危机”的赛跑,让利率反映资本回报,是加快金融市场改革的重中之重。
Compared with international experience, the Chinese economy has long been characterized by multiple imbalances. The multiple imbalances in China’s economy are inevitably caused by some “abnormalities”. Based on the perspective of interest rate control, the paper explains six core phenomena of multiple imbalances in China’s economy at the beginning of this century: the rapid capital structure of industrial structure, urbanization lags behind the process of industrialization, the employment growth rate lags behind the economic growth rate, labor Compensation growth lags behind growth of labor productivity, national income distribution continues to tilt from residents to enterprises and the government, and the share of consumption in GDP continues to decline. The multiple imbalances associated with each other are the manifestation of the “structural dynamic inefficiency” of China’s economy under interest rate control and the “distorted growth” of the economy is not sustainable in the future. In order for the “reform” to win a race against the “crisis” and let the interest rate reflect the return on capital, it is a top priority for accelerating the reform of the financial market.