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研究全球气候变暖对林木生长的影响具有重要意义。以马尾松种源区域试验测定材料为例尝试预测气候变暖对我国林木生长的效应。根据 Schmidtling’s回归法预测 ,若年均温提高 2℃ ,马尾松 9年生树高生长将下降 8%左右。作者认为回归法有其固有缺点而难以确切说明气候变暖的效果。鉴于此 ,本文参照 Matyas’s生长反应模型和作者已有研究基础 ,构建不同种源在年均温环境梯度的反应函数 ,确定增温后不同地理区域树高生长的变化值 ,从而建立随产地年均温或地理纬度的反应模型。结果表明该模型可较好地预测气候变暖在不同地理区域内的效果 ,年均温增高 2℃将加速北部种源的生长 ,而南部种源的生长有不同程度的下降
It is of great significance to study the impact of global warming on forest growth. A Case Study of Pinus massoniana Provenances in Regional Tests as an Example to Predict the Effects of Climate Warming on Forest Growth in China. According to Schmidtling’s regression analysis, if the annual average temperature is increased by 2 ℃, the 9-year-old height growth of Pinus massoniana will decrease about 8%. The author believes that the regression method has its own inherent shortcomings and it is difficult to exactly explain the effect of climate warming. In view of this, according to Matyas’s growth response model and the existing research foundation of the author, this paper constructs the reaction function of the annual temperature gradient of different provenances and determines the change of tree height growth in different geographical regions after warming, Response model for temperature or geography latitude. The results show that the model can better predict the effect of climate warming in different geographical regions. The annual average temperature increase of 2 ℃ will accelerate the growth of northern provenances, while the growth of southern provenances will decline to some extent