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目的对北京市密云区手足口病疫情的发病情况进行分析,为制定防控策略提供依据。方法收集2008-2015年密云区手足口病发病资料及人口学资料,采用中心移动平均法进行发病趋势预测,利用时间序列分析进行定量预测。结果手足口病的发病集中在4~8月,发病高峰在6月的年份最多,手足口病发病基本上以单峰分布为主;2008-2015年北京市密云区手足口病发病水平总体上呈平稳趋势;2016年手足口病月发病数将在0~181例左右徘徊,发病高峰为6月份;2016-01/07手足口病实际发病数均在预测值95%可信区间范围内,但预测精度较低。结论手足口病重点防控季节为4~8月份;当每月报告发病数超过其当月预测的最高值应提高警戒。
Objective To analyze the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Miyun district of Beijing and provide the basis for making prevention and control strategies. Methods The incidence data and demographic data of hand-foot-mouth disease in Miyun district during 2008-2015 were collected. The center moving average method was used to predict the incidence trend and the time-series analysis was used for quantitative prediction. Results The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease concentrated in April to August, the peak incidence peaked in June, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease was mainly monomodal distribution. In 2008-2015, the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease The number of monthly incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2016 will hover around 0 to 181 cases and the peak of incidence will be in June; The actual incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2016-01 / 07 is within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted value, However, the prediction accuracy is low. Conclusion The key prevention and control season of hand-foot-mouth disease is from April to August. When the monthly incidence of reports exceeds the highest value of the month, the warning should be raised.