决策是一种判断,是若干项方案中的选择。所谓选择,通常不是“是”与“非”间的选择,最多只是“大概是对的”与“也许是错的”之间的选择。而绝大多数的选择,都是任何一项方案均不一定优于其他方案时的选择。遗憾的是,不少人会认为决策的第一步是“先搜集事实”,但是能做有效决? Decision making is a judgment and a choice among several options. The so-called choice is usually not the choice between “yes” and “no”, at most only the choice between “probably right” and “maybe wrong”. The vast majority of choices are the choices that any one option will not necessarily outperform others. Unfortunately, many people think that the first step in making a decision is to “gather facts first,” but to be effective?