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本文旨在从制度与发展策略的角度,分析“大跃进”危机的触发机制,解释“大跃进”前期中国经济呈现的一系列典型事实。依据历史资料,本文在政治集权和计划经济背景下,构建了一个两部门增长模型。研究发现:(1)由于农业“浮夸风”和工业化急功近利的影响,中央决策者采用了过高的工农业投资路径、农业资源转移路径和农民消费路径;(2)过高消费路径与农村余粮间的不匹配触发了饥荒;(3)赶超战略失败的直接原因是农业产出和生产率未如预期增加。数值模拟表明,模型结果合理地解释了“大跃进”前期的典型事实。
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the triggering mechanism of the “Great Leap Forward” crisis and explain a series of typical facts about the Chinese economy in the pre-Great Leap Forward from the perspective of institution and development strategy. Based on historical data, this paper constructs a two-department growth model under the background of political centralization and planned economy. The results show that: (1) due to the influence of agriculture and exaggeration of industrialization, central government decision-makers have adopted excessive industrial and agricultural investment paths, agricultural resource transfer paths and peasant consumption paths; (2) excessive consumption routes and The mismatch between rural surplus grain triggers famine; and (3) the direct cause of the unsuccessful catching-up strategy is that agricultural output and productivity are not rising as expected. Numerical simulations show that the model results reasonably explain the typical facts of the early Great Leap Forward.