为了研究自1990年代初期以来我国经常账户出现持续顺差的内外部原因,本文利用Blanchard和Quah提出的对冲击进行长期约束的冲击分解方法,分析了内部冲击和外部冲击对我国经常账户失衡的“冲击-传导”机制。分析结论表明:我国经常账户失衡主要是由我国内部冲击因素导致的,并且,在样本期内,我国经常账户的波动也可以由其内部冲击分量来模拟。依据这些结论,本文提出了应对我国经常账户失衡的政策建议。 In order to study the internal and external reasons why the current account of our country has a sustained surplus since the early 1990’s, by using the method of impact decomposition long-term restrained by Blanchard and Quah proposed by Blanchard and Quah, this paper analyzes the internal and external impact on the current account imbalance in our country. Impact - conduction "mechanism. The conclusion of the analysis shows that the current account imbalance in our country is mainly caused by the internal shocks in our country. And in the sample period, the fluctuation of the current account in our country can also be simulated by the internal impact components. Based on these conclusions, this paper presents policy proposals to deal with the current account imbalance in our country.