目的预测医院的住院人数。方法运用季节性移动平均法对济宁医学院附属医院１９９４～１９９６年儿科住院人数的资料进行分析。结果预测模型为Ｘｉ＝（１０２９８＋０４３６４×ｉ）ＫＬｉ，并预测了１９９７年１～６月的住院人数，预测值与实际值进行比较，平均绝对百分比误差为８１８％。结论此预测结果为拟定医院管理方案提供科学资料和理论依据。 Objective To predict hospital admissions. Methods The seasonal moving average method was used to analyze the data of pediatric hospitalization in the affiliated hospital of Jining Medical College from 1994 to 1996. The prediction model was Xi=(10298+04364×i)KLi, and the number of hospital admissions from January to June 1997 was predicted. The predicted and actual values ​​were compared and the average absolute percentage error was 818%. Conclusion This forecasting result provides scientific data and theoretical basis for drawing up a hospital management plan.