上半年经济数据表现靓丽,GDP增速、出口、PMI、企业盈利水平等多项指数均出现了“稳中向好”的态势,表明我国经济短期复苏。但是对于下一阶段经济发展趋势,市场的判断出现了严重分歧。有人认为“新周期”正在开启,有人认为经济周期的拐点远没有到来。经济周期不仅是一种均值回归现象,而且是预 The performance of the economy in the first half of the year was quite good, with a number of indicators such as GDP growth, exports, PMI, and corporate profitability all showing a “steady to good” trend, indicating a short-term economic recovery in China. However, for the next stage of economic development trend, there are serious discrepancies in market judgment. Some people think that “new cycle ” is opening, some people think that the inflection point of the economic cycle is far from coming. Economic cycle is not only an average regression phenomenon, but also pre-