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本文从三个方面:三大产业之间、工业产业链内部和价值链角度分析利润转移现象。*从三大产业之间的利润转移看,第二产业与第一产业以及第三产业的增速差在下降,预示着第二产业的利润发生了转移。第三产业内部一些现代服务业出现迅速增长,正是这种利润转移趋势的受益者。*从工业产业链中的利润转移看,利润由中游投资品向上游能源、原材料转移的趋势比较明显,下游消费品的利润增长保持稳定。我们预计下半年工业利润构成的行业排序可能依次是:能源、消费品、原材料、投资品。*随着原材料价格回落,可能会带动整体工业产业链盈利能力的再次下降。我们建议将视角超出工业产业链的范围,从价值链角度看待利润转移现象,更多关注流通与服务环节在经济平稳下降过程中所具有的比较优势。
This article analyzes the phenomenon of profit transfer from three aspects: the three major industries, the industrial chain and the value chain. * From the perspective of profit transfer among the three major industries, the growth difference between the secondary industry and the primary and tertiary industries is on the decline, indicating that the profits of the secondary industry have shifted. The rapid growth of some modern service industries within the tertiary industry is exactly the beneficiary of this trend of profit transfer. * From the perspective of profit transfer in the industrial chain, the profit from midstream investment products to upstream energy sources, the trend of more obvious transfer of raw materials, downstream consumer goods, profit growth remained stable. We expect the industrial rankings in the second half of the industry may constitute the order of: energy, consumer goods, raw materials, investment products. * With the drop of raw material prices, the profitability of the overall industrial chain may be driven down again. We suggest that we should look beyond the scope of the industrial chain, view the phenomenon of profit transfer from the perspective of the value chain, and pay more attention to the comparative advantages of the circulation and service sectors in the process of steady economic decline.