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美国经济增速下滑对亚洲经济的影响程度,首先取决于美国经济增长减速的规模,以及是否会出现衰退甚至是严重衰退。而亚洲国家和地区自身经济结构和抵御风险能力的强弱,也将造成各国和地区受损程度的极大不同。我的基本看法是:美国经济的增长率将由去年的5.1%降至今年的1%～1.5%,在此期间还有可能出现短期和轻度的衰退,并在明年恢复到2%～3%的增长率受其影响,亚洲除日本以外的国家和地区的平均经济增长率也将由去年的7%降至4.5%左右,但仍将
The extent to which the U.S. economic slowdown affects the Asian economy depends first and foremost on the scale of the U.S. economic slowdown and whether there will be a recession or even a serious recession. The strength and weakness of Asian countries and their own economic structure and ability to resist risks will also result in great differences in the degree of damage done by countries and regions. My basic view is that the U.S. economy will have its economic growth rate from 5.1% last year to 1% -1.5% this year. During this period, short-term and mild recessions may occur and will resume to 2% -3% next year. Its growth rate will be affected. The average economic growth rate of Asia and other countries and regions outside Japan will also drop to 4.5% from 7% last year. However,