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目的 :研究鄂尔多斯沙地草场小毛足鼠种群数量动态 ,并对其种群数量进行预测。方法 :1991～ 1996年每年 4～ 10月的每月中旬在沙地草场的 6种生境内 ,采用直线夹日法调查 ,以捕获率 ( % )表示种群密度 ,并利用捕获率和繁殖指数为指标建立预测模型。结果 :6年中该鼠平均季节消长曲线呈单峰型 ,7月为最高峰 ,4月为最低峰 ,相差最多的 1993年 ,最高峰是最低峰的10 .5倍。 6年中该鼠数量年度变化经历了低谷—高峰—下降—低谷 4个阶段 ,即 1991～ 1992年为低谷期 ,1993年为高峰期 ,1994年为下降期 ,1995～ 1996年又为低谷期。利用捕获率作指标建立了 4个短期预测模型 ;用繁殖指数为指标分别建立了中、长期预测模型。结论 :种群数量季节消长各年间有明显差异 ;1995年开始进行预测预报 ,预测比较准确。
OBJECTIVE: To study the dynamics of the population dynamics of Curcuma parrot in Erdos Sandy Grassland and forecast its population. Methods: From June to October of each year, from April to October of each year, from 1991 to 1996, six species of habitat of sand land were used to investigate the density of the population with the catching rate (%). The catch rate and reproductive index Indicators to establish forecasting model. Results: The average seasonal fluctuation curve of the mice showed a single peak at 6 years, with the highest peak in July, the lowest peak in April and the highest difference in 1993, the highest peak was 10.5 times of the lowest peak. The annual change of the number of rats in the past six years experienced four stages from low valley to high peak to low valley to low valley, that is, from 1991 to 1992 as the trough, from 1993 to the peak, from 1994 to the descending period, from 1995 to 1996 as the trough period . Four short-term prediction models were established using the capture rate as an indicator. The medium- and long-term prediction models were established respectively using the index of reproduction. Conclusion: There are significant differences in the seasonal fluctuation of population quantity in different years. In 1995, the forecasting and forecasting is carried out. The prediction is more accurate.