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影响PTA期货价格波动的因素包括PTA上游原油、石脑油、MX、PX的价格波动,其下游涤纶产品的需求状况,其替代品棉花的价格走势,还包括PX、PTA生产设备的开工状况,以及金融层面的货币流动性的影响等等。但本文仅从PTA上游初始原料的视角出发,通过回归与时间序列的组合模型方法,测算原油价格的变化对PTA期货价格的影响幅度。
The factors that affect the price volatility of PTA futures include the price fluctuation of upstream PTA crude oil, naphtha, MX and PX, the demand status of downstream polyester products, the price trend of substitute cotton products, the start-up conditions of PX and PTA production equipment, And the impact of monetary liquidity at the financial level. However, from the perspective of the initial raw materials of PTA upstream, this paper estimates the influence of the change of crude oil price on the price of PTA futures through the combination of regression and time series.