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对1952—1963年病害流行程度与穗期气象要素之間的相关性测定結果表明,各年发病程度与4月下旬至5月下旬(小麦抽穗至糊熟)特別是5月上中旬(小麦开花至灌浆初期)的降雨日数、相对湿度呈明显的正相关;与同期的降雨量、平均气温相关不显著。稻桩上产生的子囊壳是本地区初侵染的主要来源,初侵染的数量和流行程度有关,其数量积累决定于雨湿条件。小麦开花灌浆初期最易感病,此时期降雨日数是病害流行的决定性因素。根据十二年資料分析結果,病害流行可以分为六种类型:早期发生型;中期发生型;后期发生型;少雨限制型;低温限制型;生育提早限制型。根据1957—1963年預测圃小麦开花后二旬內的降雨日数与发病率的相关,以发病率为应变量求出迴归方程式:Y=6.61 X—48.35,为中期預測提出雨日指标。
The correlation between the prevalence of the disease and the meteorological elements at the heading stage from 1952 to 1963 showed that the incidence of each year varied from the late April to the late May (wheat heading to paste ripening), especially in the middle of May The rainfall days and the relative humidity showed a significant positive correlation with the rainfall and the mean temperature in the same period. The carapace shell produced on the rice piles is the primary source of primary infection in this region. The amount of initial infection is related to the prevalence, and its accumulation depends on the conditions of rain and moisture. The most susceptible wheat inflorescence early filling, precipitation during this period is the decisive factor in the epidemic. According to the results of twelve years of data analysis, epidemics can be divided into six types: early onset; mid-onset; late-onset; less-restrictive; low-temperature-limiting; According to the correlation between the rainfall days and the incidence rate of wheat in the second year after blooming in 1957-1963, the regression equation was found with incidence rate as the dependent variable: Y = 6.61 X-48.35, and the rainy-day index was put forward for the medium-term forecast.