美国新政府已公开宣布 ,美国拟将继续研制并部署 NMD系统 .各国舆论及有关专家普遍认为 ,美国 NMD的研制与部署 ,将严重破坏全球的战略稳定性 .现阶段的 NMD作为一个初步的国家导弹防御系统 ,对一个国家的有限战略反击能力将产生什么影响 ?对拥有少数战略武器的国家在遭到核入侵时实施“后发制人”的报复战略的威慑可信性将会构成哪些威胁 ?本文对此进行了定量研究 ,分析了 NMD对战略导弹反击作战的影响因素 ,建立了战略导弹反制 NMD效能分析的数学模型 ,通过模型的定量分析 ,得出了几点有重要意义的结论 .最后 ,依照模型分析的结果 ,给出了战略导弹反制 NMD系统的几点对策建议 The new U.S. administration has publicly announced that the United States intends to continue developing and deploying the NMD system, and the media and relevant experts in various countries generally believe that the development and deployment of NMD in the United States will seriously undermine the global strategic stability. As an initial nation, NMD What impact will a missile defense system have on a country’s limited strategic counterattack capacity and what will be the threat to the deterrent credibility of a nation that possesses a handful of strategic weapons in the aftermath of the nuclear atrocities? The quantitative research was carried out to analyze the influential factors of NMD on the strategic missile counterattack operations and to establish the mathematic model of the anti-NMD effectiveness analysis of the strategic missiles. Through the quantitative analysis of the model, several important conclusions were drawn.Finally, According to the result of model analysis, some countermeasures and suggestions on how to counter the NMD system of strategic missiles