论文部分内容阅读
近年来中国猪肉价格波动剧烈,2016年猪肉市场又出现了大幅波动,再次引发了社会的关注。为了分析猪肉与仔猪价格及其收益率的波动关系,研究利用多元GARCH模型检验了猪肉及仔猪价格波动是否存在集群效应和溢出效应。结果说明:我国猪肉和仔猪市场均存在集群效应和溢出效应,即猪肉与仔猪市场受到外部冲击时,猪肉和仔猪市场都将出现持续的波动;同时,猪肉与仔猪价格之间的波动容易在两个市场间传递,一个市场的剧烈波动会引发另一个市场的剧烈波动。由于我国生猪养殖户缺乏市场信息,一旦市场出现价格波动容易盲目扩大或缩小养殖规模,继而引发后续价格波动,因此为稳定市场,政府应提升市场信息透明度,利用生猪储备调控猪肉价格防止出现价格大幅度波动。
In recent years, the price of pork in China has fluctuated sharply. In 2016, the pork market fluctuated sharply again, triggering social concern again. In order to analyze the fluctuating relationship between the price of pork and piglet and its return rate, the study investigated the effect of cluster and spillover on pork and piglet price volatility by multivariate GARCH model. The results show that both pork and piglet markets in our country have cluster effect and spillover effect, that is, pork and piglet market will have continuous fluctuation in the external impact of pork and piglet market. At the same time, the fluctuation between pork and piglet price will be easy in two Transfer between markets, a market volatility will lead to another sharp fluctuations in the market. Due to the lack of market information in China’s pig farmers, once the market price fluctuations are easy to blindly expand or reduce the scale of breeding, and then lead to subsequent price fluctuations, in order to stabilize the market, the government should enhance the transparency of market information, the use of pigs to prevent pork prices to prevent the price of large Volatility.