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本文通过状态空间模型分析了我国能源消费与经济增长之间的动态关系。实证结果发现,相较于误差修正模型和固定参数模型,状态空间模型具有较好的拟合效果,能够有效的反映我国能源消费弹性系数的时变规律。实证结果表明,我国未来能源需求增速要慢于经济增速,能源消费弹性系数存在下降的趋势,能源需求与经济增长存在脱钩的现象。面对我国不断扩大的能源需求规模,我国能源短缺的状态尚未改善。为缓解能源供给压力,减少能源对外依存度,从而实现经济的可持续发展,本文建议应提高我国能源利用效率,优化能源消费结构。
This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in our country through the state space model. The empirical results show that the state space model has a better fitting effect than the error correction model and the fixed parameter model, and can effectively reflect the time-varying law of China’s energy consumption elasticity coefficient. The empirical results show that the future growth of energy demand in our country is slower than the economic growth, and the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption is declining. There is a decoupling between energy demand and economic growth. Faced with the ever-expanding scale of energy demand in our country, the state of energy shortage in our country has not been improved yet. In order to alleviate the pressure on energy supply and reduce the dependence on foreign energy in order to achieve sustainable economic development, this paper suggests that China should improve the energy efficiency and optimize the energy consumption structure.