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2008年国际金融危机以来,全球经济出现深度调整,主要发达经济体复苏乏力,新兴和发展中经济体增速明显放缓。具体表现为:国际贸易量萎缩,对世界经济增长的拉动作用减弱;去杠杆化收效有限,国际资本流动发生方向性改变;国际产业分工格局面临重新布局;由于主要经济体经济周期不同步,政策协调难度大。在此背景下,中国面临进出口增幅下降,外需对经济的拉动作用减弱;资本流出加速,外汇储备近期下降过快,货币政策陷入两难境地的状况。为此,应采取拉开与美元距离,有序释放人民币贬值压力;加强对资本流动的监测,必要时加强资本管制;平衡好“稳增长”与“去杠杆”的关系,妥善处理好债务问题;加快结构性改革,减少对外部经济的依赖;加强大国之间的协调,寻求经济政策的国际合作等措施,应对国际经济调整。
Since the international financial crisis of 2008, the global economy has undergone a profound adjustment. The recovery in major developed economies has been sluggish. The growth rates of emerging and developing economies have obviously slowed down. The concrete manifestation is that the shrinkage of international trade has weakened the pulling effect on the world economic growth; the deleveraging has limited its effectiveness and the direction of international capital flows has changed; the pattern of international industrial distribution is facing a rearrangement; and as the economic cycles of major economies are not synchronized, policies Coordination difficult. Against this background, China faces the declining growth rate of import and export, the weakening effect of external demand on the economy, the accelerating capital outflow, the recent rapid decline of foreign exchange reserves and the dilemma of monetary policy. To this end, we should take the distance from the United States dollar and orderly release the pressure of devaluation of the renminbi; strengthen the monitoring of capital flow and strengthen the capital control if necessary; and balance the relationship between “steady growth” and “de-leveraging”, properly Deal with the debt problem; speed up structural reforms and reduce dependence on the external economy; strengthen coordination among big powers and seek international cooperation in economic policies and other measures to cope with the international economic readjustment.