Recent price movement
　　
The A Index and NY Nearby rose and then retreated over the past month. Despite recent declines， current levels remain above those a month ago. Prices in China， India， and Pakistan increased last month.
　　
Values for the July NY futures contract rose from 60 cents/lb in early April to nearly 65 cents/lb in late April and early May. More recently， values have retreated， with current levels near 61 cents/lb.
　　
The A Index increased from levels near 67 cents/lb a month ago to those 72 cents/lb in early May. The most recent values have been below 70 cents/lb.
　　
In contrast to the movement in the A Index and NY Futures， the China Cotton（CC） Index has only increased in recent weeks. In international terms， the CC Index rose from 82 cents/lb one month ago to near 87 cents/lb recently. In domestic terms， the CC Index increased from 11，700 RMB/ton to 12，500 RMB/ton.
　　
Prices for the Indian Shankar-6 variety moved generally higher over the past month， rising from 63 to 67 cents/ lb. In local terms， values also increased slightly， climbing from 33，200 to 34，800 INR/candy.
　　
Pakistani spot prices also rose， climbing from 61 to 65 cents/lb in international terms and from 5，250 to 5，550 PKR/maund in domestic terms.
　　
Supply， demand， & trade
　　
In May， the USDA releases their first complete set of estimates for an upcoming crop year. These forecasts call for an important increase in global cotton production， a slight increase in global mill-use， a slight contraction in trade， and a reduction in world ending stocks in 2016/17.
　　
Next crop year’s cotton harvest is projected to be 104.4 million bales. If realized， this would represent a 4.8 million bale （4.8%） increase relative to 2015/16. However， the current crop is the smallest since 2003/04， and the volume predicted for the coming season is not large by recent standards （10-year average is 116.3 million bales）. At the country-level， the largest changes are predicted for Pakistan（+2.0 million bales， from 7.0 to 9.0 million）， the U.S. （+1.9 million， from 12.9 to 14.8 million）， India （+1.2 million， from 26.8 to 28.0 million）， and China （-1.3 million， from 23.8 to 22.5 million）. After adverse growing conditions negatively affected production in Pakistan， India， and the U.S. in the current crop year， the global increase in production can be seen primarily as a result of expectations for a return to normal growing conditions in 2016/17.