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基于风险分析和风险决策的基本原理,针对水库来水的不确定性,分析了不同调度策略下收益(农业及生态补水量)与风险(受水区城市缺水风险),构建了确定性等价模型,分析与非确定性收益等价的确定性收益,确定了丹江口水库的农业及生态可补水量规模。结果表明,当汉江中下游、北调城市、清泉沟等需水处于2010水平年时,丹江口水库的农业及生态可补水量规模为5.0×108～9.0×108 m3。
Based on the basic principles of risk analysis and risk decision-making, aiming at the uncertainty of reservoir incoming water, this paper analyzes the benefits (agricultural and ecological recharge amount) and risk (water-cut urban water shortage risk) under different scheduling strategies and establishes certainty Price model to analyze the deterministic benefits equivalent to nondeterministic returns, and determine the scale of agriculture and ecological replenishment in Danjiangkou reservoir. The results show that when the water demand in the middle and lower reaches of the Han River, the cities in the north and the Qingquan ditch is at the level of 2010, the scale of agricultural and ecological recharge of Danjiangkou Reservoir is 5.0 × 108 ~ 9.0 × 108 m3.