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失效概率评估是定量风险评价的基础,为降低油气管道定量风险评价过程中不确定性因素的影响,建立基于修正因子的油气管道失效概率评估模型。参考国外油气管道失效数据库,获得管道6类失效因素的基本失效概率;用与管道的损害机理、周边环境以及管理水平等因素有关的修正因子,修正基本失效概率,评估目标管段各失效因素的失效概率;将各因素引起的失效概率相加得到目标管段的失效概率。将该模型应用到某条长输管线。结果表明,由挖掘损伤导致失效的概率最大,应重点防范。
Failure probability assessment is the basis of quantitative risk assessment. In order to reduce the impact of uncertainty factors in the quantitative risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines, an assessment model of failure probability of oil and gas pipelines based on the correction factor is established. With reference to foreign oil and gas pipelines failure database, the basic failure probability of 6 types of pipe failure factors is obtained. The correction factors related to the damage mechanism, surrounding environment and management level of pipelines are used to correct the basic failure probability and assess the failure of each failure factor Probability; The probability of failure caused by each factor is summed to get the failure probability of the target pipe. Apply this model to a long distance pipeline. The results show that the probability of failure caused by excavation damage is the largest and should be prevented.